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Often, how someone or something performs has no bearing on whether the same performance will repeat. For example, while it appears something is on a streak, it is often not. The odds of a player scoring goals don’t change with the number of goals they have already scored or if you’ve lucked out with seven things you’ve tried, it doesn’t mean you’ll fare the same way with the eighth one. Believing otherwise is the hot hand fallacy.
Nudge › How is a self-improvement project. The idea is to share small, actionable steps to help others lead a better, more balanced life. Mental Models are heuristics or thought patterns that help make sense of the world. This collection has minimal illustrations describing mental models. These are a part of our content stream on Instagram. We also have a newly minted Discord where we come together to discuss ideas!
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Hot Hand Fallacy
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ThePolymath
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Often, how someone or something performs has no bearing on whether the same performance will repeat. For example, while it appears something is on a streak, it is often not. The odds of a player scoring goals don’t change with the number of goals they have already scored or if you’ve lucked out with seven things you’ve tried, it doesn’t mean you’ll fare the same way with the eighth one. Believing otherwise is the hot hand fallacy.
Nudge › How is a self-improvement project. The idea is to share small, actionable steps to help others lead a better, more balanced life. Mental Models are heuristics or thought patterns that help make sense of the world. This collection has minimal illustrations describing mental models. These are a part of our content stream on Instagram. We also have a newly minted Discord where we come together to discuss ideas!
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